Introduction
Forecasting the Shift in Mobility
A leading Italian automaker saw a 5–10% annual drop in fuel-powered sales. Using data-driven forecasting, they projected 15–20% yearly growth in EVs—aiming for 50% electric sales by 2028.
Overview
Adapting to Market Shifts with Data-Driven Insights
A leading automobile provider in Italy, with a strong presence in the Indian market for three-wheeled and small commercial vehicles, experienced a noticeable shift in consumer behavior.
With rising fuel prices and the rapid adoption of electric mobility, the company sought to understand and anticipate market changes in order to sustain its leadership.
Challenge
Traditional Models Face Modern Challenges
The company faced mounting pressure in a rapidly evolving mobility landscape. Sales of fuel-powered three-wheelers were on a steady decline, driven by multiple converging factors:
Rising EV Competition
New and existing electric vehicle players rapidly gained market share, pressuring traditional three-wheeler sales.
Escalating Fuel Costs
Higher fuel prices increased the cost of ownership, making fuel-powered vehicles less viable for cost-conscious buyers.
Toward Sustainability
Consumers increasingly preferred eco-friendly options, accelerating the demand for electric alternatives.
Objective
Laying the Groundwork for an Electric Future
To forecast future sales trends in both fuel-powered and electric three-wheelers using historical data and market indicators.
Enabling the company to:
Quantify short- and long-term sales performance
Understand key market drivers
Plan a strategic transition toward electric vehicle offerings
Solution
A Data-Driven Path to Market Clarity
To address declining sales and prepare for an EV-driven future, the company adopted a data-driven approach built on historical insights and predictive modeling. This approach we did:
Data Analysis
Examined 5 years of historical sales data and external factors such as economic trends, government policies, and consumer behavior
Predictive Modeling
By applying time series analysis and regression models, we were able to create reliable and accurate sales forecasts, helping to predict future trends.
EV Market Focus
Special attention was given to tracking the rise of electric three-wheelers, supported by government incentives and increasing consumer interest
Impact
Shaping the Future of Mobility
Predictive analytics empowered the company to forecast sales trends accurately, driving a strategic shift towards electric vehicles and ensuring long-term growth. We predicted:
Short-Term Forecast
Projected 5–10% annual decline in fuel-powered three-wheeler sales
Growth in EV Sales
Estimated 15–20% annual growth in electric three-wheeler sales
Long-Term Vision
Electric vehicles expected to comprise 50% of total sales by 2028
Strategic Shift
Insights guided for product, marketing, and investments with the electric future.
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